Third time lucky? Indonesian strongman minister confirms presidential run

dr_shadow

Moderator
Moderator
Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto will run for the presidency in 2024, hoping the third time’s a charm as he tops popularity surveys on the back of his strongman image and support from the majority Muslim population.

Prabowo, who leads ’s third-largest party Gerindra, announced his intention in a briefing after a party meeting on Friday.

The former special forces commander announced his candidacy more than 18 months ahead of the elections to capitalise on popular support while he remains in President ’s government. The leader, popularly known as Jokowi and who beat Prabowo in the last two election contests, isn’t able to run again due to the two-term limits.

“I accept your call to be a candidate for the 2024 presidential election,” said Prabowo, who is among the top three leading candidates in a number of opinion polls.

According to a survey published in June by top newspaper Kompas, Prabowo is leading with 25.3 per cent. Ganjar Pranowo, the current governor of Central Java, is close behind with 22 per cent, while incumbent governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan is ranked third with 12.6 per cent.

Prabowo, who was once married to a daughter of former dictator Suharto, has consistently positioned himself as a strongman who can make Southeast Asia’s largest economy a major power to be reckoned with.

Yet he had struggled to defeat Jokowi in the last highly-charged presidential race that was marred by identity politics. Soon after the tight 2019 presidential race in which Jokowi won 55.5 per cent of the vote, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court dismissed Prabowo’s allegations of systemic electoral fraud.

Prabowo’s candidacy is likely to draw strong support from hardline Islamic groups and parties in some of the most conservative regions such as West Java, West Sumatra and Aceh. These regions shored up his votes in the last election contest.

“It’s wrong to think Indonesia could become Islamist should Prabowo come to power,” said Singapore-based Achmad Sukarsono, lead analyst for Indonesia at Control Risks. “He has to coalesce because he needs the votes. He will do a lot of things that would make him look like the symbol of Islamism.”

Investors will be watching to see if a new administration with different priorities could upend Jokowi’s vision of a new capital city powered by renewable energy that is set to complete by 2045.

Indonesia is looking to move its capital city from Jakarta to Borneo, which will be its biggest test to its economic superpower aspirations. The first phase of the US$34 billion project is due to be completed by August 2024, in line with its 79th year of independence from Dutch colonial rule.

A Prabowo presidency could mean a more centralised government with greater concentration of power, said Sukarsono. The politician championed this in the 2019 presidential race, saying that a government with greater powers could effectively counter corruption.

That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for businesses, some of which have complained Indonesia’s system is “too free” and that makes it harder to know who the real power brokers are, Sukarsono said.

Gerindra and Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa, one of the nation’s largest Muslim-based parties, declared a political alliance on Saturday, becoming the second such collaboration announced for the 2024 elections.

The two groups agreed to let their respective chairmen pick candidates for president and vice-president. They reiterated that the alliance was open to other parties.

“The coalition between Gerindra and PKB is based on a wish to join two powerful forces in Indonesia that is nationalism and religiosity to avoid polarisation in the 2024 elections,” said Gerindra central executive board head Sufmi Dasco Ahmad.

Golkar, the second-largest political party in Indonesia, had earlier declared a coalition with Muslim-based parties Partai Amanat Nasional and Partai Pesatuan Pembangunan.

 

wibisana

still newbie
While it is said to be 3rd, it actually more than that.

Iirc he run (tho didnt make in ballot maybe due to his party was too small back then)

Then he run for VP alongside Megawati 2 times (?) At least once i think. This fail. SBY (previous president) won 2 term

Then he changed costume, pander to hardcore muslim in previous 2 race agaisnt Jokowi despite known as Nationalist-Secular (this one we start counting his failure presidency race).
 

dr_shadow

Moderator
Moderator
The prospect of the Caliphate of Indonesia still lives.

:blessed

Because what the world needs is more dictators.

(Jokes aside, the military background has me imagining this guy as an Indonesian version of Bolsonaro)
 

wibisana

still newbie
The prospect of the Caliphate of Indonesia still lives.

:blessed

Because what the world needs is more dictators.

(Jokes aside, the military background has me imagining this guy as an Indonesian version of Bolsonaro)
The scary part is, in Soeharto regime, many who is vocal against him just go missing. It is said he is the executioneer (all/most of them are Prabowo's order)


This Army shooting student during 1998 protest/riots also said that he led the unit (under his command)
:mitsukidefeat
 

wibisana

still newbie
Sorry for flooding, my mind just keep running at these point.
Imo i dont really care now if he won.
I cared 2 term ago because diversity and minority seems under attack by new rise of Islam nationalism, but lookng at Jakarta that is currently ruled by those people's candidate, it seem no matter how you pretend to be pious and shits they wont 100% makes law that is unconstitutional, high level prostitution, nighclubs etc stills open in Jakarta lel.

So if he won, we wont suddenly become caliphate or Myanmar than is killing and exiling minority (Chinese-Indonesian etc)

Tho i might be wrong idk.
 

dr_shadow

Moderator
Moderator
Freedom House considers Indonesia to be one of many countries suffering "democratic backsliding". After seeing an improved human rights situation during the 2000s, things have reversed in recent years.

Year"Freedom score"
201765%
201864%
201962%
202061%
202159%
202259%


A country is considered a full democracy if it has a score higher than 66%, and a full dictatorship if lower than 33%.

For the middle interval 34-65%, where Indonesia is, we might call these countries "troubled democracies". They do have some form of competitive elections with more than one candidate/party to choose from, but there might be widespread corruption, religious and political violence, media bias etc. that mean politics are influenced by non-democratic factors and not only by the genuine preference of the people.
 

Schneider

Wise Guy
@Schneider
What is Chinese-Indonesian community's view on him?
- some thinks he's actually chinese, considering
- some thinks that he's behind the late 90s attacks on chinese ethnics
- the few that are the overlap of these 2 premises above, thinks he's a "traitor"
- his stocks not that high after the 2019 elections, when he sold out to hardcore muslim fanbase
- some of us knew he was in that religion bs for the votes, seeing how anies baswedan won the capital governor seat despite being simultaneously a clown and regime opposition with the same strategy
- if he's running with jokowi as vice then he'll be there as a puppet, or at least the public perception unavoidably will be
- we've also been hearing ganjar and (god forbid) anies lately, and around me ganjar is gaining traction. whether prabowo will be a good pick over these 2 young lads still remains to be known
 

Schneider

Wise Guy
Sorry for flooding, my mind just keep running at these point.
Imo i dont really care now if he won.
I cared 2 term ago because diversity and minority seems under attack by new rise of Islam nationalism, but lookng at Jakarta that is currently ruled by those people's candidate, it seem no matter how you pretend to be pious and shits they wont 100% makes law that is unconstitutional, high level prostitution, nighclubs etc stills open in Jakarta lel.

So if he won, we wont suddenly become caliphate or Myanmar than is killing and exiling minority (Chinese-Indonesian etc)

Tho i might be wrong idk.
our country, truthfully speaking runs on "interest" (kepentingan). "interest" being mainly in the form of personal wealth, power and influence. religion is there in the masses, but among the peaks and the elites, "interests" trump over everything.

prabowo was and probably still is a devout catholic. or atheist i dunno. he can't even sholat properly. had he won the 2019 elections chances are he'd ditch his cultish crowd once he has no use of them, not unlike presently where his name doesnt even get mentioned anywhere near the hardline sect.

about the hardline sect tho, the "lower" or "field" people may genuinely buy into the cause, but imo the guys behind the scenes at the top also run on "interests"
 

wibisana

still newbie
our country, truthfully speaking runs on "interest" (kepentingan). "interest" being mainly in the form of personal wealth, power and influence. religion is there in the masses, but among the peaks and the elites, "interests" trump over everything.

prabowo was and probably still is a devout catholic. or atheist i dunno. he can't even sholat properly. had he won the 2019 elections chances are he'd ditch his cultish crowd once he has no use of them, not unlike presently where his name doesnt even get mentioned anywhere near the hardline sect.

about the hardline sect tho, the "lower" or "field" people may genuinely buy into the cause, but imo the guys behind the scenes at the top also run on "interests"
I actually argued this with my friend back in '19, i said Prabowo isnt pious at all, he just pretending, etc2 in the end he got cornered and admit he will be voting for him just because his habib/imam says so :lmao
I think he will be running on hardcore muslim fanbase again this year despite him actually being minister under Jokowi = dont really have problem with Jokowi ideology XD (we all know him and Mega actually share same ideology lol)
we've also been hearing ganjar and (god forbid) anies lately, and around me ganjar is gaining traction. whether prabowo will be a good pick over these 2 young lads still remains to be known
Ganjar is unlikely, despite many love him and i think he is the only one have decent side from PDIP (Jokowi party, for reader that didnt know)

PDIP is still belong to Megawati and seems she want her daughter Puan to run whatever the cost (instead of Ganjar) and might lose to the otherside.

I dont think Puan can even beat Anies or even Muhaimin Iskandar (PKB/NU) let alone Prabowo. This rising hardcoreism also means woman president is being less likely than ever
 

wibisana

still newbie
puan/mega:mjlol

wondering if they have self awareness how none in the nation takes them seriously:obamalaugh
It seems Prabowo will not use hardliner vehicle?
I think PKS (which is really close to those hardliner) will have their own candidate, prolly Anies and Kamil

Prabowo Muhaimin (Gerinda + PKB) will be likely, they will try to get more moderate muslim vote + some swings that should have vote PDIP if they run Ganjar

PDIP will run Puan + someone from Golkar or P Democrat I think. It will be 2 round because noone get 50%.
Final will be Prabowo vs Anies and then PDIP will join Gerindra coalision.
 

wibisana

still newbie
Or prolly it will be Prabowo + Puan to begin with but that would be downgrade because PDIP as biggest party have to accept no.2 because they insist having Puan instead of Ganjar
 

Schneider

Wise Guy
It seems Prabowo will not use hardliner vehicle?
I think PKS (which is really close to those hardliner) will have their own candidate, prolly Anies and Kamil

Prabowo Muhaimin (Gerinda + PKB) will be likely, they will try to get more moderate muslim vote + some swings that should have vote PDIP if they run Ganjar

PDIP will run Puan + someone from Golkar or P Democrat I think. It will be 2 round because noone get 50%.
Final will be Prabowo vs Anies and then PDIP will join Gerindra coalision.
theres no reason to jump back in the mud when it failed. anies was a lucky shot* (more below). dont think prabowo himself is too keen on it either. between prabowo and anies, ill go for prabowo. as prabowo is me surname, i patiently await the day i can finally say "you know who i am? me uncle the president bitch *shows ktp* :lul:gun"

*i just remembered that none of my families in jakarta voted for ahok in '16 elections, their reasoning being ahok too stiff/strict in regulations and bureaucracy. i could see this making life harder for a lot of people so i think there was a lot of votes for opposition or abstains, so long as ahok no longer seats as governor. i'm leaning more towards this over khalifah or hardliner revolution that was perpetuating around social media back then.
 
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